Retro tech: Understanding vapourware

The psychological techniques used to sell technology have changed very little over the past five decades. Competing software and hardware products often differ mainly in how the brands make their customers feel. Too often, tech companies sell the feeling first, then fail to build the product.

To understand technology now, we can look back to previous eras of hype around technology. There has always been a tendency to announce dreams before confronting reality. Vapourware is a term that emerged in the 1980s. Technology weathers endless storms of innovation and transformation, but each cycle of excitement is accompanied by ideas and product announcements that are little more than vapour in the wind.

What is Vapourware and how to watch out for it

Vapourware has not gone away; it has become normal. With the rise of social media and web2 platforms that publish everyone’s content, it has become far easier to generate excitement around ambitious ideas without the need for a corporate PR team or traditional media exposure. Anyone can publicise a potentially groundbreaking dream regardless of the feasibility of the claims.

Genuine technological advancements happen quickly, but distinguishing between froth and reality can seem impossible. Examining the track record of the company or individuals behind the project can provide some insight into the project’s likelihood of success, but reputation and past success alone are not reliable indicators. Even well-established companies have a history of announcing vapourware.

There are two major types of vapourware.

1. Fake it ’til you make it

The first type of vapourware is simple exaggeration that can best be described as “fake it ’til you make it”. The announcement needs to feel real and important, and the hard work of building can come later. Founders or firms hype up the idea of their product, sometimes with little more than a prototype or concept, in hopes of securing funding. The promises can be grand, painting a future where their technology transforms industries, solves the world’s biggest problems and ushers in a techno-utopia three to five years into the company’s roadmap. But these projects frequently fall short, leaving investors disappointed.

Most people are savvy about this: exchanging cash now in return for future promises is a tactic as old as time. Consumers are often complicit: many choose to buy into someone else’s tech dreams instead of functional products.

But why would an established household name in technology announce a project they expect to fail?

2. Vapourware to define the narrative

Another type of technological vapours must be distinguished because of its distinct source and style: it comes from established tech giants. They have the platform and resources to make their announcements both opulent and believable. Despite the fanfare, some of the products they announce remain perpetually “in development” or are quietly shelved, never reaching the market.

In some cases, the company genuinely intended to create the project their founder imagined, but the technical or practical hurdles were insurmountable. They announced something without being sure they could deliver it. Perhaps it was not commercially viable; there were not enough customers or the product couldn’t be built at a reasonable price. The intentions were good, but in the end, the product was not so good.

This is not always the case: some vapourware products are destined to fail. But why would a company deliberately and publicly fail to deliver on their promise?

Defining failure and red lines for competitors

Some companies define the public perceptions of an entire industry.

That means a tech giant can deliberately announce vapourware as a warning to competition. A company that dominates a section of the tech market is often assumed to be capable of making any new technology work. When that company announces they are developing a new product, it captures public and media attention. It can also overshadow the work of their smaller competitors, signalling to smaller companies that they should back off and avoid being a direct competitor.

A failure to successfully launch a product also sends clear signals. If the tech giant’s product fails, it can create the impression that the entire category of innovation is not viable. This strategy can dissuade investment in similar technologies, thereby protecting the company’s dominant position and its legacy product that works well enough.

Shifting public perception through failure

When one of the world’s major tech companies fail to successfully launch a product—especially a new category of tech product—it makes it more difficult for other entrepreneurs to convince investors to fund similar ventures. Tech journalists, writers and commenters become far more sceptical of the entire category of products or ideas.

Some companies deliberately fail in areas of tech or innovation to discredit certain types of innovation. They can announce their own product, using their advantage in the market, in the media and in the public spotlight to attract the attention (and funding) that smaller companies or competitors might otherwise receive. The largest companies can attract attention, not because they want to succeed but because they are marking their territory. They already build the most popular technology, so they are the ultimate winners when a new idea fails, reinforcing their position as the market leader of the safe, reliable, familiar technology that everyone already knows about.

The term vapourware fell out of favour in the 2000s, but the strategy never faded away. We have to ask now, which of the promised revolutionary technologies will fail to materialise?

Ian MacRae is a psychologist and  independent researcher specializing in the psychology of work, digital communication, and emerging technologies. He is the author of several books that have been translated into a dozen languages, including High Potential, and Dark Social and his latest book is Web of Value: Understanding blockchain and web3’s intersection of technology, psychology and business. Web of Value is available now as an NFT, and will be released on July 10, 2024 in hardcover.

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